With the midterm elections coming up tomorrow, everyone is expecting Republicans to gain seats in the House and the Senate, but no one is sure to what degree. Let’s take a look and see what we can expect.
In the Senate, Republicans seem to be a lock to pick up at least two seats: Indiana, Wisconsin. Additionally, none of the seats they currently hold are in any danger according to recent polling. That would bring the margin in the Senate to 57-43. However, seven of those democratic seats are up for re-election and are very close. Republicans look to be in good shape in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois and Colorado with recent polling showing margins of 2-4% in favor of Republicans. Assuming that they take those, the margin will move to 53-47.
Three other close seats look as though they will be taken by the Democrats: West Virginia, Washington, and California. If current polling is accurate, these seats will stay Democratic. However, if the polling methods used have a hidden bias toward Democrats (polls face obvious difficulties determining who will actually vote. Do you count registered voters, “likely” voters or “really likely” voters?) such as underestimating Republican turnout, then one or more of these races could shift. On nothing more than a hunch, I’m going to say the Republicans do grab an upset in one of these states due to momentum, and predict a final Senate margin of 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans.
In the House, things are obviously tougher to look at, with 435 races going on across the country. Here, we will resort to data provided by www.RealClearPolitics.com. RealClearPolitics accumulates polling data and classifies races into five categories: Likely Dem, Leans Dem, Toss Up, Leans GOP, and Likely GOP. Currently, RealClearPolitics shows Republicans grabbing 224 seats, Democrats grabbing 168 seats, with 43 toss ups. It is interesting to note that of the 43 toss ups, 41 are currently held by Democrats. While Democrats are facing difficult circumstances nationally, House races are localized, and thus national tendencies can be overcome by individual candidates. Indeed, by most counts this has been a clear strategy for Democratic House candidates: focus on local issues and distance yourself from the Pelosi-Reid-Obama agenda. For that reason, we’ll assume the toss ups break to the democrats by a fairly large margin: about 2 to 1. This would give us a final House tally of 238 Republicans and 197 Democrats.
Obviously, the conclusion we can draw from this is that we are heading toward a divided government once more. To accomplish anything, Democrats and Republicans must get along. Will it happen? That’s a topic for another time.
