The Swine Flu Story
By: Matthew Keim
It seems as though the big news on the local, national, and world scene for the past decade has been the constant threat of the next big pandemic. In 2003, the spotlight was on SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which was contained by the World Health Organization (WHO). Next up was the “Bird Flu” (H5N1), which from 2006 to present day kills millions of birds in Asia and would have been a pandemic if it had mutated to infect humans quickly. And that leads us to novel H1N1, the “swine flu”, which is virus made of four different strains; one usually in humans, one in birds, and two found in pigs.
This latest pandemic has been thought to have been in Mexico since January 2009 but only recognized much later in March at which point Mexico City was basically shut down. In April 2009, two cases are found in California, the first time the disease was discovered in the US. Today, an estimated 49,214 people are infected in the United States and 631 people have died. This is the disease that has been christened as our latest pandemic.
However, the general student consensus on campus is not fear or concern but much closer to apathy and honestly, can you blame us? Based on CDC statistics, the people who have died after catching the any kind of influenza, including H1N1, has dropped below the seasonal baseline and well below the epidemic line. This does not mean H1N1 does not spread easily, which is all that pandemic status implies. So essentially, the most likely scenario if you catch H1N1 is that you will have typically flu-like symptoms. While that is not pleasant, you also get a week off from school and meals delivered to your door.
But wait a minute; the swine flu can kill, right? True, but right now the fatality rate of H1N1, based on early numbers, is just below getting struck and killed by lightning. We will not know the precise rate until the pandemic is over, and even then, the numbers are simply estimates. The CDC warns us though that viruses change with time and could grow to become much deadlier. The last time H1N1 was a major pandemic was the Spanish Flu in 1918, which killed almost 100 million people at the end of WWI. That virus was relatively quiet, similar to our 2009 H1N1 outbreak, until it mutated and killed millions of people the next year.
Thankfully, scientists highly doubt the ability of the current strain to mutate into a more lethal form. Researchers at the University of Maryland concluded that the swine flu does not meet the typical criteria for recombination into a highly lethal form. In fact, most deaths from swine flu occur when the patient already has preexisting conditions, such as pneumonia. So the flu is not deadly to most in its current form, and the chances of it becoming deadly are relatively low. So what is the big deal?
As with most universities, Lehigh has taken a very serious approach to the Swine Flu. The administration has sent out numerous emails since last year informing students about the progress of Lehigh’s preparations for the flu from the “Pandemic Flu Committee”, formed several years ago to draft written plans to deal with such an outbreak. There is a special section of the website dedicated to the H1N1 virus, with prevention information and updates as well as the procedures the CDC “highly recommend” every major university employ. The Health and Wellness Center distributed anti-bacterial hand wash at check-in back in August and has masks available to cover the nose and mouth of infected students. The administration is taking no chances.
The difference in the level of seriousness between the administration and the student body is all a matter of perception. As a student, the most likely worst case scenario is a week of the flu and delivered meals. To the school, the worst case scenario is the same “as the worst case scenario for any college campus, and that is that there could be one or more deaths from this infection”, according to Dr. Kitei, director of the Health and Wellness Center in an email. I believe the more likely worst-case scenario is for the infection to spread to a point where the school would have to close. Lehigh is always looking for national attention but I don’t think this is quite what they had in mind. The potential media nightmare and the damage to the school’s reputation are the things that keep school administrators up at night.
With news of a second student infection on campus on Tuesday 9/15, it will be interesting to see if the perceptions of the students change from the view that the infection does not affect them at Lehigh. Dr. Kitei is skeptical, commenting that, “Obviously, students will be more aware of H1N1 novel (swine) flu now, but I’m not sure perceptions have changed.”
Sources:
CDC. “CDC 2009 H1N1 Flu.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Web. 15 Sept. 2009. <http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/>.
Dr. Kitei. Message to the author. E-mail.
ECDC Daily Update. Rep. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 15 Sept. 2009. Web. 15 Sept. 2009. <http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/090917_Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_1700hrs.pdf>.
“Swine flu outcompetes seasonal flu, unlikely to get more lethal | Booster Shots | Los Angeles Times.” LA Times. Web. 15 Sept. 2009. <http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/booster_shots/2009/09/swine-flu-outcompetes-seasonal-flu-in-ferrets-unlikely-to-get-more-lethal.html>.
“WHO | World Health Organization.” Web. 15 Sept. 2009. <http://www.who.int/en/>.
